Title

Estimating the Collapse of Afghanistan’s Economy Using Nightlights Data

Author(s)

Till Raphael Sanger Till Sanger (Princeton University)

Ethan B. Kapstein Ethan Kapstein (Princeton University)

Ronnie Sircar Ronnie Sircar (Princeton University)

Abstract

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 led to the withdrawal of much of the West’s massive financial support to that country. The consequences are widespread for the government and its people, and news reports suggest that the economy is in "collapse." In this article, we go beyond qualitative and survey-based measures of the Afghan economy by using nightlights as a proxy measure for changes in GDP. Utilizing a synthetic control based on provinces of other countries in the region, we find that the Taliban takeover caused a shift from a positive growth trajectory towards a deep recession. Specifically, we estimate that Afghanistan’s GDP has likely fallen by about 15 percent since mid-2021, a shock comparable to the annual economic downturn of the United States during the peak of the Great Depression.

Creation Date

2022-12

Section URL ID

Paper Number

34

URL

https://esoc.princeton.edu/WP34

File Function

Jel

D74; O11

Keyword(s)

Afghanistan

Suppress

false

Series

12