Title

Partisan Bias, Economic Expectations, and Household Spending

Author(s)

Atif R. Mian Atif Mian (Princeton University)

Amir Sufi Amir Sufi (University of Chicago)

Nasim Khoshkhou Nasim Khoshkhou (Argus Information and Advisory Services)

Abstract

The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations based on partisan affiliation after the 2008 and 2016 elections, but administrative data on spending shows no effect of these shifts on actual household spending.

Creation Date

2018-03

Section URL ID

Paper Number

2018-9

URL

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2620828

File Function

Jel

D10, D19, D84

Keyword(s)

Politics, Partisan Bias, Economic Expectations, Household Spending

Suppress

false

Series

13