Title

Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network

Author(s)

Pablo D. Fajgelbaum Pablo Fajgelbaum (Princeton University)

Amit Khandelwal Amit Khandelwal (Columbia University)

Wookun Kim Wookun Kim (Southern Methodist University)

Cristiano Mantovani Cristiano Mantovani (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Edouard Schaal Edouard Schaal (CREI, ICREA, UPF, BGSE and CEPR)

Abstract

We study optimal dynamic lockdowns against Covid-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models, and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu and NYC-Metro. Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns. In NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting reductions were too weak in central locations in Daegu and NYM, and too strong across Seoul.

Creation Date

2020-11

Section URL ID

Paper Number

2020-36

URL

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27441/w27441.pdf

File Function

Jel

R38, R4, C6

Keyword(s)

COVID-19, pandemics, South Korea, United States, commuting, lockdown

Suppress

false

Series

13