Title

The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States

Author(s)

Thomas Fujiwara Thomas Fujiwara (Princeton University and NBER)

Karsten Müller Karsten Müller (National University of Singapore)

Carlo Schwarz Carlo Schwarz (Università Bocconi)

Abstract

We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter’s rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congressional elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and a text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter’s relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.

Creation Date

2022-09

Section URL ID

Paper Number

2022-18

URL

http://www.princeton.edu/~fujiwara/papers/SocialMediaAndElections.pdf

File Function

Jel

D72

Keyword(s)

voting behavior, elections

Suppress

false

Series

13