Title

Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflicts? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments

Author(s)

Graeme Graeme Blair Graeme Graeme Blair (UCLA)

Darin Christensen Darin Christensen (UCLA )

Aaron Rudkin Aaron Rudkin (UCLA)

Abstract

Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.

Creation Date

2020-09

Section URL ID

Paper Number

21

URL

https://esoc.princeton.edu/WP21

File Function

Jel

D74; Q20; Q30

Keyword(s)

resource curse, armed conflict, commodity prices, meta-analysis

Suppress

false

Series

12