Title

Demographic Dynamics and Long-Run Development: Insights for the Secular Stagnation Debate

Author(s)

Matteo Cervellati Matteo Cervellati (University of Bologna, IZA Bonn)

Uwe Sunde Uwe Sunde (University of Munich, CEPR, IZA Bonn)

Klaus F. Zimmermann Klaus Zimmermann (Princeton University, UNU -MERIT, CEPR)

Abstract

This paper takes a global, long-run perspective on the recent debate about secular stagnation, which has so far mainly focused on the short term. The analysis is motivated by observing the interplay between the economic and demographic transition that has occurred in the developed world over the past 150 years. To the extent that high growth rates in the past have partly been the consequence of singular changes during the economic and demographic transition, growth is likely to become more moderate once the transition is completed. At the same time, a similar transition is on its way in most developing countries, with profound consequences for the development prospects in these countries, but also for global comparative development. The evidence presented here suggests that long-run development dynamics have potentially important implications for the prospects of human and physical capital accumulation, the evolution of productivity and the question of secular stagnation.

Creation Date

2016-09

Section URL ID

Paper Number

604

URL

https://dataspace.princeton.edu/bitstream/88435/dsp01v118rh01b/3/604.pdf

File Function

Jel

C54, E10, J11, J13, J18, N30, O10, O40

Keyword(s)

long-term development, income growth, demographic transition

Suppress

false

Series

1